Sabermetrics—the empirical analysis of baseball statistics—has transformed how we evaluate player performance. These advanced metrics help bridge comparisons across different eras and provide deeper insights than traditional statistics. Here's a guide to the most important sabermetric measures used in modern baseball analysis.
Comprehensive Value Metrics
WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
In baseball, both WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and bWAR (Baseball-Reference WAR) aim to quantify a player's total contribution to a team in terms of wins, but they differ in their calculation methods. Specifically, fWAR (FanGraphs WAR) places more emphasis on fielding independent metrics for pitchers and uses a different fielding metric (UZR) compared to bWAR (which uses DRS). Here's a more detailed breakdown:1. What is WAR?
- WAR is a comprehensive metric that attempts to encapsulate a player's total value to their team in terms of wins, considering hitting, fielding, baserunning, and pitching (if applicable).
- It essentially measures how many more wins a player contributes to their team compared to a "replacement-level" player – a readily available, readily affordable player.
2. What is bWAR (Baseball-Reference WAR)?
- bWAR, also known as rWAR, is the WAR calculation developed and used by Baseball-Reference.com.
- It uses a runs-allowed approach for pitchers, meaning it looks at how many runs a pitcher allows to assess their effectiveness.
- For fielders, bWAR uses Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) to evaluate their defensive contributions.
3. What is fWAR (FanGraphs WAR)?
- fWAR is the WAR calculation developed and used by FanGraphs.
- For pitchers, fWAR uses FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) instead of runs allowed, focusing on strikeouts, walks, home runs, and hit batsmen – aspects a pitcher directly controls.
- For fielders, fWAR uses Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) to assess defensive performance.
4. Key Differences in Calculation:
- Pitching:fWAR uses FIP, which is considered more stable and predictive, while bWAR uses RA9 (Runs Allowed per nine innings), which reflects actual run prevention.
- Fielding:fWAR uses UZR, while bWAR uses DRS. Both aim to quantify a player's defensive value, but they can yield different results, especially in smaller sample sizes.
In essence, while both fWAR and bWAR attempt to measure a player's total contribution, they differ in their approach to evaluating pitching and fielding, leading to potential variations in their calculated values.
Context: A 2+ WAR season is considered starter quality; 5+ WAR is All-Star level; 8+ WAR represents MVP-caliber performance.
Offensive Metrics
OPS+ (Adjusted On-base Plus Slugging)
What it measures: OPS (On-base Percentage + Slugging Percentage) adjusted for ballpark and era, presented on a scale where 100 is league average.
Formula: (OPS ÷ League OPS) × 100, adjusted for ballpark factors
Context: An OPS+ of 120 means a player was 20% better than league average; 80 means 20% worse.
wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus)
What it measures: A comprehensive offensive statistic that values each offensive event (singles, walks, homers, etc.) based on its actual run value, adjusted for era and ballpark.
Formula: ((wRAA ÷ PA × League PA ÷ League wRAA) + League R/PA) ÷ (League R/PA) × 100
Context: Like OPS+, 100 is league average, with each point above/below representing percentage better/worse than average.
wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average)
What it measures: A rate statistic that properly weights each offensive event based on its run value.
Formula: (0.69×uBB + 0.72×HBP + 0.89×1B + 1.27×2B + 1.62×3B + 2.10×HR) ÷ (AB + BB + SF + HBP)
(Note: Coefficients are updated annually based on run environment)
Context: Scaled to look like OBP, with league average typically around .320-.330.
ISO (Isolated Power)
What it measures: Raw power by removing singles from slugging percentage.
Formula: SLG − AVG or (2B + 2×3B + 3×HR) ÷ AB
Context: .150 is average, .200+ is good power, .250+ is excellent power.
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play)
What it measures: How often a ball in play (excluding home runs) falls for a hit.
Formula: (H − HR) ÷ (AB − K − HR + SF)
Context: League average is typically .290-.300. Significant deviations often indicate luck factors.
Pitching Metrics
FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)
What it measures: A pitcher's effectiveness based solely on outcomes they directly control (strikeouts, walks, hit batters, home runs).
Formula: ((13 × HR) + (3 × (BB + HBP)) − (2 × K)) ÷ IP + constant
Context: Scaled to look like ERA. The constant adjusts FIP to match league-average ERA for that season.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching)
What it measures: Like FIP, but normalizes home run rate to league average.
Formula: Similar to FIP, but replaces actual HR with expected HR based on fly balls and league-average HR/FB rate.
Context: Better predictor of future ERA than FIP for pitchers with extreme HR/FB rates.
ERA+ (Adjusted Earned Run Average)
What it measures: ERA adjusted for ballpark and era, indexed so 100 is league average.
Formula: (League ERA ÷ ERA) × 100, adjusted for ballpark
Context: Higher is better; 120 ERA+ means 20% better than league average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA)
What it measures: An advanced ERA estimator that considers the complexity of pitcher skill sets.
Formula: Complex formula incorporating K%, BB%, GB%, and batted ball distribution
Context: Like ERA, lower is better. Accounts for how different skills interact (e.g., groundball pitchers can succeed with fewer strikeouts).
K% and BB% (Strikeout and Walk Percentages)
What it measures: Percentage of plate appearances resulting in strikeouts or walks.
Formulas:
- K% = K ÷ Total Batters Faced
- BB% = BB ÷ Total Batters Faced
Context: More informative than K/9 or BB/9 because they're not influenced by a pitcher's efficiency.
Defensive Metrics
DRS (Defensive Runs Saved)
What it measures: Fielding value in runs above or below average.
Formula: Complex system measuring range, throwing arm, double plays, and error avoidance compared to average at position.
Context: +10 is excellent for a season; -10 is poor.
UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating)
What it measures: Similar to DRS, but with different methodology.
Formula: Combines range runs, error runs, throwing arm runs, and double-play runs.
Context: Scale similar to DRS, with average being zero.
OAA (Outs Above Average)
What it measures: Statcast-based metric showing how many outs a fielder has saved compared to average.
Formula: Based on catch probability of each ball using Statcast tracking data.
Context: +5 is good, +10 is excellent for a season.
Situational and Context Metrics
WPA (Win Probability Added)
What it measures: The change in win expectancy caused by each play.
Formula: Win Probability After Play − Win Probability Before Play
Context: Captures clutch performance; +3.0 for a season is excellent.
RE24 (Run Expectancy based on 24 base/out states)
What it measures: How many runs a player added or subtracted based on the run expectancy before and after their plate appearance.
Formula: Run Expectancy After Play − Run Expectancy Before Play
Context: Considers base-out situation but not game score or inning.
Specialized Metrics
BsR (Baserunning Runs)
What it measures: Value added through baserunning in runs above average.
Formula: Combines stolen base runs, extra base taken runs, and avoiding double plays.
Context: +3 for a season is good; +7 is excellent.
Barrel%
What it measures: Percentage of batted balls with optimal combination of exit velocity and launch angle.
Formula: Barrels ÷ Batted Ball Events
Context: A "Barrel" requires minimum exit velocity of 98 mph and launch angle where batting average exceeds .500 and slugging exceeds 1.500.
Hard Hit%
What it measures: Percentage of batted balls hit 95+ mph.
Formula: Batted Balls ≥ 95 mph ÷ Total Batted Balls
Context: League average is approximately 35-38%.
Understanding Era Adjustments
Many Sabermetric statistics are "normalized" to account for different eras. For example, a .300 batting average in the high-offense 1930s doesn't equal a .300 average in the pitcher-dominated 1960s. Statistics with "+" (like OPS+ and ERA+) or those presented as "plus" (wRC+) are indexed to league average (100) for their respective seasons, making cross-era comparisons more valid.
Similarly, park factors adjust for how different stadiums affect performance. A home run in Colorado's Coors Field is "worth less" in adjusted metrics than a home run in Miami's spacious ballpark.
Conclusion
Sabermetrics doesn't replace traditional statistics but provides additional context and deeper analysis. Understanding these metrics helps fans better appreciate player value across different positions, eras, and ballparks. While formulas can seem complex, the insights they provide are invaluable for meaningful player comparisons throughout baseball history.